The funding challenge in adult social care is one of the biggest facing London local government over the Spending Review period.
Our analysis suggests there will be a cumulative funding shortfall in adult social care across London of at least £800 million by the end of this Parliament. Without assistance from Government, this vital part of the health and care system will find it increasingly difficult to operate effectively to meet demands.
We are already seeing the fallout of funding restrictions. Although most boroughs have increased the rates they pay to providers by around 5 per cent, the feedback they are receiving is that this is still not enough to ensure sustainable services for vulnerable people. Read our adult social care in London report
In the last six months all boroughs we surveyed said either a home care provider, residential or nursing home had closed in their area. These closures have affected over 1000 vulnerable people London-wide, and demonstrate a pattern that is set to continue. Delayed transfers of care, increasing numbers of A&E visits and understaffing of key services will also be a consequence unless action is taken.
In addition, London is experiencing almost double the rate of population growth compared to the rest of the country. By 2040 we will have a population of more than 11 million: more people than in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined. Inevitably this will result in further strain on adult social care services as the numbers of older people and those with complex needs sees a corresponding rise.